Cash flow forecasting estimates future inflows and outflows and ensures that a company maintains adequate liquidity to meet its obligations. It is essential for the successful management of firms, especially during uncertain market conditions. Without accurate cash flow forecasting, a company may fail to meet its short-term obligations and risk bankruptcy. Small firms usually incur high financing costs due to credit risk and resource constraints. In contrast, larger firms may have difficulties managing their financial assets when they move to another stage of the business life cycle. Hence, cash flow forecasting is critical for businesses of all sizes.

So, What is Cash Flow?

Cash flow is the movement of money in and out of a business over a specific period. It is used to assess a company’s liquidity, efficiency, and overall financial health. 

Cash flow includes:

• Cash Inflows: Money received from sales, investments, and other sources
• Cash Outflow: Money spent on marketing, sales salaries, rent, utilities, inventory purchases, debt service and other items

Cash flow could either be positive or negative

• Positive cash flow occurs when inflows exceed outflows. This indicates business stability and profitability. 
• Negative cash flow occurs when outflows exceed inflows. This indicates liquidity issues and possible business loss. 

Why is Cash Flow Forecasting Important?

CFOs and FP&A Financial analysts use cash flow forecasting to analyze business decisions, evaluate projects, manage business liquidity, and check if a company meets its projected expectations against the actual results. Cash is and will remain king in business, so keeping a keen eye on finances is necessary for all businesses. Cash flow forecasting ensures that a company will perform well in the future. Other reasons for cash forecasting include risk aversion, debt recovery, and growth strategy execution. 

Procedures for Cash Forecasting

1. Define forecast period: This could be short-term or long-term, depending on the organization’s forecasting needs. The short-term is usually less than 90 days, while the long-term is more than 1 year. 
2. Gather Historical Data: Collect past cash flow statements, income statements, and balance sheets. 
3. Identify Cash Inflows: From the historical data, identify all sources of inflow, including sales revenue, asset revenue, grants, and refunds. 
4. Identify Cash Outflows: From the historical data, identify all sources of cash outflow, including fixed expenses, variable expenses, and loan payments. 
5. Calculate Net Cash Flow: Use the formula Total Inflows—Total Outflows to determine Net Cash Flow, which will help determine whether the company’s cash flow is positive or negative.
6. Analyse trends: Identify seasonal fluctuations and adjust estimates accordingly.
7. Monitor or update regularly: Regularly compare forecast with actual performance to identify discrepancies and adjust forecast accordingly. This ensures planning remains relevant and accurate. 

The 13-week Cash Flow Model

The 13-week cash flow model represents the optimal time frame for tactical cash management while maintaining strategic visibility. This model bridges the gap between daily cash management and quarterly planning horizons, providing businesses with a rolling forecast that’s both actionable and predictive.

Key Components of the 13-week Model

• Beginning Cash Balance: Starting point based on actual bank balances
• Cash Inflows: Customer collections, asset sales, and other receipts
• Cash Outflows: Vendor payments, payroll, debt service, and operating expenses
• Net Cash Position: Weekly ending balance after all movements

Tip: If you use Quickbooks Online, you can run a transaction report in a weekly format which will give you a big head start in creating a forecast by week.

Implementation Process:

Historical Analysis

• Review payment patterns from customers
• Analyse vendor payment timing
• Document recurring payment obligations
• Identify seasonal trends

Forecast Development

• Project collections based on AR ageing
• Schedule known payment obligations
• Plan for recurring expenses
• Account for seasonal variations

Monitoring and Maintenance

• Weekly variance analysis
• Rolling updates to projections
• Assumption refinement
• Documentation of changes

Benefits of the 13-week Model

• Provides early warning of potential cash shortages
• Enables proactive management of vendor payments
• Supports working capital optimization
• Facilitates bank and stakeholder communications
• Helps identify seasonal capital needs

The 13-week cash flow model serves as an essential tool for emerging businesses, particularly during periods of rapid growth when cash demands can quickly outpace available resources. Regular maintenance and review of this model ensure businesses maintain adequate liquidity while pursuing growth opportunities.

Case Study (Application of Cash Forecasting)

Background

Auxell Autoparts Inc. manufactures automotive parts. Due to rapid growth, the company has encountered challenges in managing its cash flow effectively, which has impacted its ability to invest in new projects and meet obligations. So, the company contracted a Fractional CFO to implement a robust cash forecasting model that helps management make informed financial decisions and maintain sufficient liquidity.

Challenges

• Lack of Historical Data: The company had not kept detailed cash inflows and outflows records.
• Inconsistent Revenue Streams: Sales fluctuated seasonally, making it difficult to predict cash flow.
• Unpredictable Expenses: Operational costs varied significantly, leading to unplanned cash shortages.

Solution

• Automated Data Collection: Integrating existing enterprise resource planning (ERP) and accounting systems to collect and consolidate relevant data.
• Advanced Analytics: Using machine learning algorithms and statistical models to analyze historical data, identify patterns, and forecast future cash flows.
• Rolling Forecast: Implementation of a rolling forecast that continuously updates and refines the cash forecast to reflect changes in the business environment.

Results

• Improved Accuracy: The rolling forecast led to more accurate cash flow predictions, with a less than 5% variance from actual figures.
• Enhanced Decision-Making: Management could identify shortfalls in advance and make informed decisions, such as adjusting production schedules or negotiating payment terms with suppliers.
• Increased Cash Reserves: The company maintained a buffer to manage unforeseen expenses, improving liquidity.

Recommendations by the Fractional CFO 

• Continually refine forecasting models based on new data and business changes.
• Train staff involved in the forecasting process to enhance skills and understanding.
• Regularly communicate cash flow forecasts to the broader management team to align organizational objectives.

Conclusion

Auxell Automotive  Inc. overcame its cash management challenges by implementing a cash forecasting solution and gaining improved visibility, efficiency, and decision-making capabilities. The case study highlights the importance of cash flow forecasting and management in ensuring a company’s financial health. Even a growing business can find itself in precarious situations by neglecting these practices.

FAQs

Q: What are the two (2) main types of cash flow forecasts?

Ans: The two main types of cash flow forecasting models are short-term and long-term. Short-term forecasts predict cash inflow and outflow over a month, quarter, or year, while long-term forecasts predict cash flow over a longer span, like five years or more.

Q: What is an example of a cash projection?

Ans: Let’s say your business has a starting cash balance of $50,000, projected inflows of $120,000, and projected outflows of $40,000. Using the cash flow forecast formula, your fore-casted cash flow for the period will be $50,000 + $120,000 – $40,000 = $130,000.

Q: How can a cash flow forecast be made accurate?

Ans: To make an accurate cash flow forecast, scope out your financial plan for the forecasting period, add up all forms of incoming cash and all sources of cash outflows, and maintain the data through consistent reporting and communication. Leverage cash flow projection templates and cash flow forecasting software to automate reporting, track critical business metrics, and minimise potential forecasting errors.

So, Why Choose CFO Pro + Analytics for Your Fractional CFO Needs?

At CFOPro+Analytics, we bring years of experience helping businesses thrive. Regardless of your industry, size, or goals, we help you handle your organization’s most challenging demands. 

Our Fractional CFO advisory services are designed to offer insights on navigating opportunities and challenges. 

To schedule a time to chat about your business, click the link below.

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About the Author: Salvatore Tirabassi is a seasoned Chief Financial Officer and change agent with over 25 years of success transforming finance to innovate, grow, and increase shareholder value. Based in or operating out of the New York City Area, Salvatore specializes in providing Fractional CFO services to businesses, offering strategic financial guidance to drive growth and success. Connect with Salvatore on LinkedIn or CFO PRO+Analytics for more financial management and strategic planning insights.